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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It often functions as a kind of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround wins the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or simply the greatest upset.

However the current field is distinctly unique. The list of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners fading and longtime underperformers ascending together. Under an ordinary season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this turbulent and fun season, he's facing several other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot should look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his rare ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to create magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But this is not a normal season!

The area where his case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained success. But he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the leadership stuff, which wasn't a given after his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A mid-year setback caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still