A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
