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"I'll remain in this seat by 2027," Sir Keir Starmer stated, noting that if our conversation was successful, he might welcome us into Downing Street for another talk in 2026.

There is never truly downtime for those in the top job. In the hour before our chat started, Starmer had been speaking with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and working to work out what on earth had happened in Venezuela, where his big political chum, US President Donald Trump, had recently targeted and seized its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

Once our interview, which was considerably lengthier than usual, had concluded, Maduro had been charged in New York.

A Refresh for the New Year

As the year starts, Starmer seems to have had a kind of a reboot. Perhaps even just a little relaxation with loved ones at Chequers, the prime minister's official country residence.

That certainly seemed to have put him in better spirits than at the difficult end of 2025, a dreadful year politically for him.

Yet, are he and his allies kidding themselves if they believe his fortunes are set to improve?

Internal Doubts

The grisly reality for the prime minister is that many of his colleagues think he's ineffective at his job. Some of them would rather take a risk and get him out this year.

But Starmer was having none of it during our conversation on Saturday morning.

On several occasions he insisted he'd be "judged at the next election", insisting no one would take his electoral mandate from him – even if the best chance of halting Nigel Farage and Reform UK reaching No 10 could be for Labour to switch leader.

"This is the battle of our generation and I aim to guide the party," he declared.

The Spring Test

The problem for the prime minister is that he will be assessed well ahead of then – in a huge set of elections in May throughout the UK. He tried to protest, maybe too much, that they are concerning who runs councils, and who runs the governments in Holyrood or Cardiff – and not about Westminster.

Accurate – to some extent. But even though he may be reluctant to concede it, No 10 will be judged by those elections too.

This did not stop Sir Keir implying that there were no scenario under which he would walk away, even if a his colleagues contested his leadership for the job, if those elections prove catastrophic for Labour.

Predicting a Turnaround

He tried to rationalise his unpopularity by saying the public was understandably anxious for things to improve. He sought to persuade the interviewer, and the nation, that the coming months would be distinct.

The economic situation would recover in the face of rising unemployment, he said, when strategies the government enacted during their first turbulent year began to take effect.

• He vowed to empty asylum hotels before the current deadline of 2029, but he did not put a specific date on that.
• He noted too, with the proviso that it was not a done deal, that a peace agreement in Ukraine felt more likely now than at any time since Russia's full-scale invasion.
• He stated for the first time that Western allies were now considering how to coordinate US and European forces to offer security for Ukraine – to protect a possible peace.

His core argument is that in 2026 the country will "see an improvement".

Familiar Arguments

The PM may have spoken with greater vigour than I've seen from him for a some time – less tense, maybe, with more time to talk.

However, in spite of encountering pressure from various quarters for a more decisive strategy, with greater political direction, more urgency, more speed and more immediacy, his arguments were repeated ones.

Given that he is in this much political difficulty, does he need a new narrative?

No administration, and especially not one that has been unpopular for an extended period, has everything its own way.

The Prime Minister's problems are not only because government is hard, but because he and his colleagues have erred, even in the last few weeks.

Controversies and Dangers

The prime minister expressed regret that he was sorry for saying he was "happy" to welcome back the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK following an outcry when statements he'd made in the past – including calls for Zionists and police to be killed – surfaced.

Sir Keir attributed it to "the system" for failing to identify what the activist had said before – a more diplomatic way of saying it wasn't his responsibility.

And he is courting evident political dangers as the year unfolds. His alliance with the US president acquires a new jeopardy after Trump's strikes on Venezuela.

Having interviewed Sir Keir Starmer, a ex- human rights lawyer who was against the war in Iraq, over many years, the thought he would be at ease with this kind of intervention seems unlikely.

Policy Stances and Pressures

He stated he was a "lifelong advocate of international law" but we "simply haven't got the full picture at the moment".

Opponents demanded criticise the action before we spoke. And the administration is expected to face further scrutiny to give an explicit view in Parliament in the coming days.

There has also consistently been growing pressure in the Labour party to revisit some of the consequences of Brexit.

Sir Keir rejects he's pursuing that, but his new specific pledge to integrate further with the EU's single market – the vast economic European market – will probably provoke accusations that he is going back on his promise never to try to overturn the choices that flowed from Brexit.

A commitment to cosy up to more of the single market will satisfy a faction on his side of the party, but it is prime ammunition for Reform and the Conservatives to